Ryan’s 2015 MLB Predictions

It’s time for my annual pre-season baseball predictions!

Last year, I incorrectly predicted a lot of things. I had the Red Sox and Cardinals in the World Series, I had the Twins losing 105 games, and I only predicted 4 of the 10 playoff teams correctly (Tigers, Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers). I even had the two teams that met in the World Series–the Giants and Royals–finishing with losing records. So how will I do for an encore?

Twins Preview
The Twins seemed like they were handcuffed a little bit this offseason. They have too many uber prospects about to join the team, so they couldn’t go spending big on free agents to fill those spots. Instead they pretty much stood pat at key positions, aside from bringing back Torii Hunter and adding Ervin Santana. I’m cool with that. I maybe would have tried to find a better stopgap center fielder like Peter Bourjos, but we’ll see what the Schafer/Robinson duo can do.

I doubt the Twins will move up the standings much in 2015, but I could see them winning 4-7 more games and finishing around 78-84 if all breaks right. They are in a surprisingly tough division all of a sudden, with the White Sox loading up, the Royals fresh off a shocking World Series appearance, and the Indians apparently everyone’s sleeper for 2015. I think the Tigers are on the downhill trend, but will still be competitive for the next year or two.

I imagine there will be a lot of evening out from last season. Overachievers like Danny Santana and Kurt Suzuki are bound to come back down to earth a little, while underachievers like Joe Mauer and Josmil Pinto are probably due for a slightly better year. If Santana and Vargas really are as good as they played in their rookie seasons, Mauer bounces back, Dozier continues to be a force in the top of the order, and they get anything whatsoever out of their center fielders, they should be a great offensive team again. I like the starting rotation of Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, and Milone, but the defense behind them–especially in the outfield–is going to skew their numbers into looking worse than they are. Everyone is down on the Twins for their lack of outfield defense, and that’s a fair argument. Arcia and Hunter have very poor range. Even Schafer has a negative career UZR in center. That could be the Twins’ Achilles heel.

Officially, I’m predicting 76-86 and a last-place finish. But I think 2016 will be the year they challenge for a playoff spot… and if not then, definitely 2017.

 

AL East W L GB NL East W L GB
Boston 87 75 - Washington 105 57 -
Toronto 84 78 3 Miami* 88 74 17
NY Yankees 83 79 4 NY Mets 81 81 24
Tampa Bay 82 80 5 Philadelphia 67 95 38
Baltimore 78 84 9 Atlanta 64 98 41
AL Central W L GB NL Central W L GB
Chicago WS 91 71 - St Louis 97 65 -
Detroit* 87 75 4 Pittsburgh* 92 70 5
Cleveland 86 76 5 Chicago Cubs 81 81 16
Kansas City 77 85 14 Milwaukee 76 86 21
Minnesota 76 86 15 Cincinnati 73 89 24
AL West W L GB NL West W L GB
Seattle 90 72 - LA Dodgers 93 69 -
LA Angels* 89 73 1 San Francisco 91 71 2
Oakland 86 76 4 San Diego 86 76 7
Houston 80 82 10 Colorado 69 93 24
Texas 69 93 21 Arizona 67 95 26

 

AL Wild Card: LA Angels def. Detroit
NL Wild Card: Pittsburgh def. Miami

ALDS: Seattle def. LA Angels, Boston def. Chicago
NLDS: 
Washington def. Pittsburgh, St Louis def LA Dodgers

ALCS: Boston def. Seattle
NLCS: 
St Louis def. Washington

World Series: St Louis def. Boston (I’m hoping I’m way off. It’s a World Series I wouldn’t watch.)

AL MVP: Mike Trout, LAA
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen, PIT

AL CY: Felix Hernandez, SEA
NL CY: Jacob DeGrom, NYM

AL MGR: Robin Ventura, CHW
NL MGR: 
Mike Redmond, MIA

AL ROY: Rusney Castillo, BOS
NL ROY: 
Jorge Soler, CHC

AL Comeback Player: Prince Fielder, TEX
NL Comeback Player: Ryan Howard, PHI

AL HR Leader: Jose Abreu, CHW, 48
NL HR Leader: Troy Tulowitzki, COL, 43

AL Batting Champion: Carlos Santana, CLE, .332
NL Batting Champion: Anthony Rendon, WAS, .336

Got any predictions you’d like to officially add for the record? Leave a comment and we’ll check back in October!

Home Ownership Fun

Well, that flooring scare was all for nothing, apparently! I feared the worst–that our foundation was cracked and leaking and we’d owe thousands in repair costs. Today, we had a skilled flooring expert out to the house to inspect, and he reported there is no moisture on the concrete slab. He was so certain that the slab was dry that he would have no hesitation installing hardwood floor on top of it as is. Whew, sigh of relief!

We can see in Exhibit A that the carpet is filthy and stained. In Exhibit B, however, the padding below the carpet is in “like new” condition, not so much as a blemish. And in Exhibit C, we can see the slab is stained in a similar pattern as Exhibit A. So what does that tell us?

Exhibit A

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

Exhibit B

Exhibit C

Exhibit C

Leave it to someone who is an expert in flooring to explain that in Exhibit C, what looks like staining on the slab is in fact the normal look of the slab; the clean outer edges are where the builders patched things up with some plaster. The moisture detector in that area came back with a normal reading. Add in the fact that the padding in between is so new looking, and we now know that the staining on the carpet couldn’t be the result of moisture on the slab, otherwise the padding would be filthy too. Rather, it must have come from above. Acrylic carpet is apparently known for its difficulty to get clean, so the grimy look must be due to wicking in the fibers after a shoddy cleaning job.

I also had a plumber out to inspect and he too saw nothing that resembled a slab leak. He tested the water pressure and concluded there were no leaks. But his visit did remind me that the sprinkler system is still a little out of whack. So I started my search for the sprinkler shut-off valve again. Several covers in the front yard were buried under grass and I uncovered those to no avail. But I did pry up a few boards on the patio in the backyard and found some sprinkler parts… not the main shut-off valve, but a good start. I’ll dig around more this weekend. Once I find the shut-off valve, I can turn off the water to the sprinklers so I can repair the leaky anti-siphon valve without turning off water to the whole house.

Aha! Sprinkler parts buried deep under the patio.

Aha! Sprinkler parts buried deep under the patio.